Voter responses to fiscal austerity

Autor(en)
Evelyne Hübscher, Thomas Sattler, Markus Wagner
Abstrakt

Governments have great difficulties designing politically sustainable responses to rising public debt. These difficulties are grounded in a limited understanding of the popular constraints during periods of fiscal pressure. For instance, an influential view claims that fiscal austerity does not entail significant political risk. But this research potentially underestimates the impact of austerity on votes because of strategic selection bias. This study addresses this challenge by conducting survey experiments in Spain, Portugal, Italy, the UK and Germany. In contrast to previous findings, the results show that a government's re-election chances greatly decrease if it proposes austerity measures. Voters object particularly strongly to spending cuts and, to a lesser extent, to tax increases. While voters also disapprove of fiscal deficits, they weight the costs of austerity policies more than their potential benefits for the fiscal balance. These findings are inconsistent with the policy recommendations of international financial institutions.

Organisation(en)
Institut für Staatswissenschaft
Externe Organisation(en)
Central European University Budapest, Université de Genève
Journal
British Journal of Political Science
Band
51
Seiten
1751-1760
Anzahl der Seiten
10
ISSN
0007-1234
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000320
Publikationsdatum
09-2020
Peer-reviewed
Ja
ÖFOS 2012
506014 Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft
Schlagwörter
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
Political Science and International Relations
Link zum Portal
https://ucris.univie.ac.at/portal/de/publications/voter-responses-to-fiscal-austerity(f889b40d-d9e2-4d29-9075-c44da9ee4127).html